Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): Resumption of production area exceeded expectations Q1 performance exceeded expectations

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): Resumption of production area exceeded expectations Q1 performance exceeded expectations
Event: Shaanxi Coal released the first quarter of 2019 report, and the company achieved operating income of 144 in Q1 2019.05 trillion US dollars, an increase of 14 each year.44%, a decrease of 10 from the previous month.48%, net profit attributable to mother 27.75 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.35%, an increase of 30 from the previous month.34%. Comments: 1.The output affected by the mining disaster increased, and the sales volume of trade coal procurement increased every year. In Q1 2019, the company achieved coal production of 2396.44 Initially, the annual decrease was 129.52 for the first time, a decrease of 406 from the previous month.83 production, the company’s output decline is mainly due to the impact of difficult production suspension in Shaanxi Yulin Mine. As compared with the same period last year, Xiaobaodang No. 1 mine (1500 tons) was put into production. In terms of full production, Q1 produced 3.75 million tons more than last year.According to this, the impact of the mine disaster on the company’s output is about 500. In Q1 2019, the company’s coal sales were 3383.38 Initially, it increased by 280 inches per year and decreased by 708 inches from the previous month.The increase in coal sales comes from the increase in the sales of outsourced coal, mainly due to the increase in output brought by the Group’s Caojiatan mines. 2.The resumption of production in Yulin area is slow, and the price of Shaanxi thermal coal pit mouth is firm. Up to now, 5 batches of coal mines in Shaanxi Yulin have resumed production, with a total capacity of 4.1.1 billion tons, Yulin’s approved production capacity4.8 billion tons, about 7,000 on-table production capacity has not yet resumed production, last year’s output 6.2 billion tons, off-balance sheet production capacity has not yet resumed. At present, coal bills in Yulin are strictly controlled, black coal is hit hard, and pit entrance prices are firm.The average price of Shaanxi thermal coal price index in 2019 is 426.5 yuan / ton, compared with 408 last year.3 yuan / ton. Calculated from the “coal sales revenue” and “coal sales volume” announced by the company, the company’s ton coal production in Q1 2019 has increased, but because the “ton coal sales” measured here includes one-vote settlement freightTherefore, there is a certain difference in following the true accuracy, but in the case of a small change in the proportion of the one-vote settlement ratio, it can be compared that Q1 coal replacement is improved. From the perspective of the cost per ton of coal, the overall cost of Q1 increased mainly due to: (1) increased purchase of trade coal; (2) accrual of environmental protection funds and improvement of Yulin’s automatic resource tax rate. 3.Increasing the results of the first quarter of 2019 and avoiding changes in transfer items (1) Increase in fair value gains by 2.9 billion: 天津夜网 Mainly income from changes in the fair value of corporate trust assets. (2) The asset impairment was written back to RMB 29.53 million (the receivable budget was reduced by the provision for bad debts), and the asset impairment was RMB 23.21 million in the same period last year, with a difference of RMB 52.74 million. Investment suggestion: Due to the difficulty of the Yulin mine in Shaanxi, the overall resumption of production has exceeded expectations, and the price in Shaanxi’s pit mouth is firm. We adjust our profit forecast upwards, and the net profit for 2019-2021 will be 96.5.8 billion, 109.5.7 billion, 106.5.7 billion increased to 102.14 billion, 115.4.8 billion, 111.8.9 billion, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: the actual macroeconomic growth rate, coal prices have fallen sharply, more capacity has been 无锡桑拿网 released in large quantities, policy coal prices have been reorganized, and imported coal policies have been relaxed.