CITIC Construction Investment: Some to increase positions on three main lines as scheduled
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8%, GEM Index fell more than 4%.
The decline in the semiconductor industry during the previous rise was transmitted.
Second, strategic comment 1. Overseas shocks affect the market, the stock logic remains unchanged. Due to the spread of overseas epidemics, the European and American markets have fallen for two consecutive days, affecting the risk appetite of the Chinese market.
The Chinese A-share market changed on February 25. On February 26, A-shares appeared again, and the GEM fell more than 4%.
This is in accordance with our weekly report in the 4th week of February, “If the market is segmented, how to increase the position correctly?
》 The judgment is consistent: the market will overlap and volatility will increase at this stage.
After the initial number of additional cases has entered zero, China has entered the stage of processing stock cases, and production resumption will progress in an orderly manner.
We expect the impact of China’s economy to be significant in Q1, but the basic goals of China’s economy in 2020 remain unchanged.
The overall tone of active fiscal and monetary policies remains unchanged, and the direction of industrial upgrading remains unchanged.
We expect that liquidity will continue to be accommodative during the stock case processing stage, and lowering interest rates will be the main task. Active fiscal policies will gradually be implemented, which will have contradictory support for the market.
Therefore, the fundamentals of China’s economy remain unchanged, and the market’s expected direction remains unchanged.
2. Risks of technology stock release From February 3 to the present, popular themes such as semiconductors, 5G communications, and new energy vehicles have performed well, and the stock market has clearly differentiated.
Judging from the estimated level, the technology sector is about 10%, the risk has been released to a certain extent, and the highly estimated state has been adjusted to a certain extent.
GEM is expected to return to about 30 times in 2020.
The development and performance of the industry has driven the technology sector back to the upside.
In addition, the new rules for refinancing have been implemented. Enterprises can obtain long-term funds through refinancing, and even achieve asset reorganization on the asset side and reorganization of equity structure on the owner’s equity side, which is conducive to improving the quality and long-term growth of listed companies.
3. Investment strategy: Pay attention to the changes in resumption of work. The three main lines to increase positions face a part that comes on schedule. We maintain our “How to increase positions appropriately if the market replaces?
The view in》 remains unchanged: the macro policy environment is conducive to the continued bull market.
If there is interest in the short-term market, investors can choose to increase their positions.
From the perspective of industry configuration, there are three main lines: First, the industry is booming, and the technology sector supported by liquidity policies can increase positions above the market, which is also the main line of the capital market.
Second, through the gradual resumption of work by the enterprises, the consumer industries such as automobiles, food and beverages, real estate, home appliances, catering and tourism, where the demand for airlines has been compressed, will rebound again and need to be added.
Third, 杭州夜网论坛 benefit from the capital market reform and liquidity-rich securities sector;